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Talk:Rapture Bank Crash
Page needs revision Assumptions are being made on this page that make little sense. Page needs revision reflecting evidence shown in the game. 02:46, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :So many things to answer here, I call for a special layout. Also be fair on this page, I don't think it has been much checked over the last 5 years. Anyway, I'll answer progressilvely on each of your points. Pauolo (talk) 07:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) Bank Run This is whats happening at the same time : :McDonagh - Fontaine's Legacy :Transcript: Strikes me that Fontaine wasn't overly inconvenienced by his own demise. On New Year's Eve, his wretched Splicers came streaming out of the poor houses and stormed the proverbial barricades! The dead rot in the streets, and Johnny and Janey Citizen are lined up round the block for Plasmids... anything to help fend off the rabble. With Atlas's terrorists in whole sections of the City shooting-up/slicing-up citizens -- murdering them in the streets, destroying infrastructure, Citizens then fighting Atlas's followers -- a war ----- THAT is what disrupted the entire economy (how do you run a business when all your customers/employees are afraid to even leave their houses, and basic neccessities are the only things selling). Commerce comes largely to a halt. Now wages/salaries cease and bank are completely out of CASH to cover withdrawls. SO this later (Kashmir time Grace references ) "bank run" was NOT the deciding factor in the civil war time economic collapse. The games plot is very vague about how fast this all happened - either quickly or taking more time (time for the money panic to settle/become irrelevant). Big Economic mess and everybody is poor and dont care about 'have-nots protesting'. Citizens are more concerned with their own Safety. Ryan may not have declared Martial Law quickly (did he even have Security Forces big enough?? to do much?), and saw Citizens as the proper ones to eradicate the terrorists/anarchist themselves. Power hungry Fontaine/Atlas using ADAM mutants to cause chaos and destruction is the deciding factor in Raptures decline. SO NOT some 'bank run' which was a side effect instead of a 'cause'. - A 'Run on a Bank' does NOT devalue money - there just isnt enough of it for common transactions, which stop, causing bankruptcies if business conventions continue to be enforced (those who expected payments on mortgages start to seize 'security' or break contracts, cascading indirectly to much of the economy) Confidence in the system (where (re)payments are assumed to be honored or people just being paid ) is what is lost. - 1929 was a huge margin-based credit bubble which CRASHED because of the stock market (the mass of investment loans were unsecured ) People/'Banks' might be stupid enough to invest that way in Rapture again, but its more "a tempest in a teapot" in a market place as small as Rapture. The 1959 bank run is more likely that by fearful people grabbing money to go buy Plasmids to defend themselves (and then the banks not having enough cash to cover - which when people here rush to get theirs out). 02:46, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :Soooo, I get your point, but what do you want to change the sentence to? Pauolo (talk) 07:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :- : :Probably just to not mention all the assumptions - just have the facts as presented in the game. There WAS a bank run, but tie it into the Panic to get ADAM, as McDonagh mentions. :Skip the Prentis Mill mention, as I think theres more than enough there to suggest it was connected to a much earlier time. :Is there enough game evidence to show Rapture business recovering from the 'scare' and continuing for a while (BS1 we see it as wrecked well over a year later) -- that this crash wasnt 'the end of the world' and that the civil war had barely begun to destroy the entire economy (I got the impression from previous games that it was slower -- Atlas took time to emerge and start to seriously imperil Rapture -- time for Ryan to set up all that security). : 08:59, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ::McDonagh's quote and Keeping Up can link to people investing their money into Plasmids for self-defense, and Genetic Arms Race to explain that those enhancements were constantly evolving into better versions (thus the need to buy more). It would be ideal to find a few other sources to cement the fact that it led to a bank run. Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC) Sinclair profited - If money has no value then how exactly does Sinclair profit? (Remember ADAM became the currency during the Civil War...) And he is supposed to build Sinclair Deluxe DURING the Civil War ???? So that is during some earlier economic distress to have that low income housing opportunity/redevelopment. People out of jobs with no money cant pay rent. Sinclair DEFINITELY wasnt running a charity. 02:46, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :Sinclair did build his hotel prior to the war, or am I missing something? The only way we know he profited from the conflicts was by running test fields with his Home Consumer Reward Program. I'm not sure when Lamb kicked him out of Persephone though (before or after New Year's Eve?) so can't say much on his business down there.Pauolo (talk) 07:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :- : :Note - the civil war allegedly started/recognized to start when Kashmir was attacked. SO if the 'bank run/crash' was the product of that (Graces audio diary) then its irrelevant to mention Sinclair profiting from poor people in his hotel on this page. :Yes, Sinclair (if anyone) would find a way for some profit (many people do during wars) but I doubt it would be quite like the MultiPlayer storyline making him selling to both sides (particularly when Atlas would want him dead and or with Atlas's anarchists in charge the business opportunities SInclair made his life using would disappear). Ryan would pay him for the testing for Plasmids that were needed to win against the miscreants (Atlas and his 'revolutionaries'). I doubt Ryan was 'profiting' either when it was HIS stuff that the war was destroying (and we dont hear mention of how sinclair's other businesses were fairing from the war). :Lamb logically would have kicked him out later (after Ryan was dead) otherwise a whole lot of Ryans security would storm the place and put an end to her (or drive her out or just turn off the heat/air on her). :I think verbage somewhere said she just sat it (civil war) out. : 08:48, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ::Yeah, he was merely testing weapons for Ryan (the Trials hint at that, rewarding for trying out the various effects of each Plasmids and weapons). Also yes that field testing is his only business known to run during the war. There's still Persephone giving up inmates for Big Daddy conversion, but I'd like to see a solid source. The only ones I know of talk about them being turned into Alpha Series, not fully functional BD. ::So yes, it's a bit misplaced to say he profited from the war as it could not be true at all. We're only sure that he survived it, even during Lamb's reign. Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC) "only served to drive the already struggling Atlantic Express into bankruptcy" It is more consistant to game details that Prentis Mill killed himself after a previous economic readjustment - sometime after his RR went bankrupt (replaced supposedly by Bathyspheres Metro system etc...) -- DO you think the Bathysphere system was built during the Civil War (bombs talked about exploding by Grace were Kashmir Massacre) OR when Ryan was already LOCKING DOWN the Bathysphere system (ie- Authorized Personnel Only)??? Definitely a conflict there with that situation. SO THAT "Rapture Bank Crash" ''' mentioned for Prentis Mill was '''NOT after the Kashmir incident and the 'bank run' that took place afterward. Prentis Mill would have (not being an imbicile) had much of his CASH loans secured in exchange (By Ryan at minimum) so would likely STILL have been a very rich man (so maybe it was more the failure of his Railroad that drove him to suicide). At minimum he would, at the end, hold ownership of the banks he loaned to and all the mortgages they had held. 02:46, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :I'm not sure either if the Atlantic Express went bankrupt during the war. The way I understand Mill's last diary is that at some time he invested money in a few banks of Rapture. He lost on his investments and Austen Bathysphere proposed to buy the rail to later decommission it (because of the coming Rapture Metro system? That bit isn't explained either and that system predates the war from several years at least). Problem is, the rail wasn't decommissioned entirely, it's working surprisingly well on the line took by Delta and Sinclair. And how much did he gain from the sale to end up in Pauper's Drop? There's too much missing elements to say the Atlantic Express was bankrupted by the bank crash following the civil war, or by an unheard other bank crash. Perhaps it's even linked to the fall of Fontaine Futuristics for all we know. Anyway that part about the Atlantic Express needs further discussion. Pauolo (talk) 07:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :- :I (making an educated guess) have suggested an earlier economic crisis -- when the stoppage of city building (~1951-2) put alot of construction workers out of work. Hence "Hooverville" and Paupers drop for people with no money... Bathyspheres at that time were becoming popular, so were stealing business from the AE trains (which generally arent overly profitable for passengers to begin with). Another businessman consolidating the Bathysphers/Trolleys would have brough even more competition. Then the economic crisis would decrease ridership further, stressing AE passenger business more (Note - FREIGHT could still be a viable business- bathyspheres just arent arranged to do that very well - so RR staying in existance to be later used in BS2). :Then this "helping Ryan with CASH for the Banks" thing used up money Mill could have used to prop up his RRs forcing bankruptcy. SO he has to sell out to a competitor who will decommission Mill's lifework. Again myths about newly ex-millionaires jumping out windows - doesnt really make sense (but easy story to tell ... and little shrine in Paupers Drop 7+ years later ). Somewhere I wrote Mill may have 'played trains' for a while with that one remaining line in the south part of the city we see in BS2 (which was rundown section and didnt have any Bathyspheres to be seen). :SO again its too vague to declare linkage to the Mill story AE bankruptcy on this Bank Crash page (as if it was result of Kashmir/New Years/Civil War starting) when its more likely so much of that stuff happened long before. : 09:26, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ::I know that theory of yours and it's realistic, assuming city building ceased around 1952 or even later. There's a source that the first residents of Pauper's Drop were the previous workers of AE who had the idea of inhabiting unused spaces along the railroad. I can imagine Prentice Mill keeping for himself the last remaining line, but killing whatever money he had left from selling the others into maintaining it. What's interesting in that line is that it's like an historic tour, starting with the memorial museum in Ryan Amusements and ending with Rapture's promised future at Fontaine Futuristics. ::Still yes, it's too vague to simply link AE's bankruptcy to the Civil War. For all we know, some of the AE stations were rebuilt into Rapture Metro stations and most of the tracks removed for space way before the conflict, with the only visible ones left in the South sectors of the city (my educated guess would place the line East from the city, but that's another debate). Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC) "the general populace had its confidence broken by the escalating violence of the Rapture Civil War" Vague - so the Civil War allegedly was already happening ??? -- then why everywhere in the WIKI does it say Kashmir was its start ?? (People/Newspapers in BaS on Market and High Street dont seem overly concenerned) "Crash" Bank Runs happen fast . 03:19, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :Dude, keep your shit together, it's an old page in needs of editing. :Confidence was already plummeting after Fontaine's fall, that's perhaps what should have been written instead. Pauolo (talk) 07:36, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :- :'broken' is a serious exclamation. Shaken or disturbed for the Fontaine Shootout (the violence to the citizens and the government intervention maybe moreso, and then the major dangerous nature of the Splicers to Ryan and his security). :My comment is really : what 'escalation'? Civil War 'escalating' when it wasnt even percieved as bein 'on' yet (perhaps Ryan was worried, but was the citizenry yet?) Again if the big shock was all this violence, then the 'bank run' was just a side-effect of a much worse situation happening. : 09:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ::So you mean the bank crash was not a result of the escalation of violence, that it happened before things turned really ugly? If I had to replace it in order, it would be: panic first led to citizens putting their money on buying more protections, which in turn helped to the escalation of violence. Is that correct? Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC) "In direct violation of his own economic principles of Free Market capitalism, Andrew Ryan ..." Who says? Ryan didnt just start printing money to hand out, or Raising Taxes to spend on Make Work programs or setting up thousands of regulations to control the economy. He talked someone into making an investment who's company was dependant on Rapture's economy staying stable and healthy. JP Morgan and others did the same in a similar incident before and again during the 1929 Crash. And if this was an earlier 'bank run' event (like in 1952) then maybe it did work, but the AE was already heading for bankruptsy anyway -- due to competition. 03:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :I don't think Ryan ever betrayed his own principles until before he started pouring pheromones and what else to influence Splicers. If it's about the takeover of Fontaine Futuristics, well personal theory: I think he was the only one who could run Rapture's leading science corporation (which brought a good deal of the wondrous technology seen in the games). Simply closing it and giving shares to whoever was in Fontaine's testament would have put out of jobs hundreds if not thousands of employees, and amputated Rapture of its technological progress. Changing the brand to be part of Ryan Industries was a way to bring back customers after his Fontaine's-a-boogeyman campaign (justified because of the smugglers endangering Rapture's secrecy), not just for appropriation. I can still see how rioters deformed that when I compare it to Georges Lucas selling his companies to Disney (oooh, the internet backlash we are now accustomed with /:<) :Anyway yes, Ryan never betrayed his principles and that's what people were against during the war. A quote from Ryan to illustrate this: "Have I become so convinced by my own beliefs that I have stopped seeing the truth?" Pauolo (talk) 07:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :- : :Well the Pheromone Control thing would just stop Rapture from coming apart/ being destroyed entirely. :Thats why I called such things 'war measures' (which usually end after the emergency is over). :I think there was a partial justification saying that the Splicers were insane and so had already surrendered their free will to the ADAM. Ryan dies before he has a chance to show what he would do after Atlas was eliminated and things could be 'fixed' (Ryan would have motive to restore his city and under the philosophy he believed in). :McDonagh suggests finding Fontaines heirs, but we never hear anything further (and we know there would be none to find and likely no business partners, and nothing wassaid if FF stock investors held their shares value after the 'nationalization'). AT the point Ryan did the 'takeover', ADAM shortages might have been the bigger bigger crisis (Atlas supposed caused Riots by decalring that...) Shutting down FF wasnt an option. :Actually do we really know how many people were in this civil war rebellion ?? How many were not just being given ADAM to make them crazy? Atlas telling them what they wanted to hear and then go out and demand they just be given stuff (You'd think Ryan had weeded most such people out by who was chosen to come to Rapture -- but then ADAM makes people crazy....). In a closed in space, with easy to destroy equipment keeping everyone alive, its VERY easy for just a few people to cause major harm and destruction for all the rest. Weve already seen in OUR world that just a few terrorists can disrupt whole cities. Ryan tried containment (ie Apollo Square) while he tried to get the ring leaders (unsucecssfully) and I think they (writers) REALLY missed the BIG twist in BS1 --- of having Ryan know about Jack/Atlas/Fontaine (we saw his board in Ryans office) and faking HIS own death to 'con' Atlas and turning Jack the pawn into HIS 'ace in the hole' to finally eliminate Atlas. : 09:57, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ::War measures was what Ryan wanted to avoid at all cost. It's a paradox because he betrayed his ideals in order to save them, or perhaps that's when he finally saw the truth about his city and betrayed them to save it instead. ::We don't have much examples of Atlas using ADAM shortage as a flag against Ryan, it's mostly about better treatment and help for the working Joe. At least none that I can remember except for a Rapture Tribune article in BaS2 raising alarm about the shortage. It's still a good argument for leading an army of junkies, or simply people depending on medicine detained by the governing body (not an original story). ::I don't think the writers missed the twist. Put it shortly, we enter a "perfect" city (or at least a recovering one) uninvited and drive its creator into committing suicide. Had we simply killed him or become his pawn, it would have not had the same effect. Ryan's suicide asks people to think about it, to think about Rapture's fate. Still we previously discussed his death in another post so let's keep to the bank crash for now. I probably should have not brought Ryan into this post either. Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC) Eventually, even Andrew Ryan started to realize that ADAM had come to replace dollars as the real currency in Rapture "Rapture is changing. Link by link, the great chain of industry is being reforged with a new form of capital: ADAM." Unsupporting statement - that quote would be long before the Civil War /Bank Crash happened. (likely while Fontaine was still alive and Rapture's businesses climate was being shifted). Capital is 'investment' not 'payment' which is all that is left during the Civil War. 03:49, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :The sentence is a bit clumsy. ADAM became vital for the genetic arms race, but it wasn't any form of capital just as ammunitions for weapons. Pauolo (talk) 07:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :- :Probably should mention it as The Bank Crash after the Kashmir Incident was the beginning of the end of normal commerce in Rapture, and in the Civil War that followed, ADAM became the chief currency. :Mention further possibly that : Ryan himself had to pay people in ADAM (evidence being the Bounty he offered for Jack and the Brenda and Charlie dialog). :Upto that point (Kashmir) normalcy still had Dollars having value and for some time following (the Whole Circus of Value 'vender taking advantage' story etc...) : 10:29, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ::Put like that it makes more sense. I can also link to this PA announcement: "A Rapture Reminder: we all have bills to pay, and the temptation to break curfew to make a little extra ADAM is forgivable. Breaking curfew is not. Stay on the level, and out of trouble!" ::Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ''"Bomb goes off in that fancy place uptown, and everybody panics... pulls their money out of the banks... a whole city tuggin' on the same dollar bill. So the banks fold, and maybe one in ten got their savings out..."'' So thats the only thing that Grace sees going on ? SO no Murder in the streets by Terrorists -- or is that not happening yet ?? She doesnt seem concerned with Splicers coming to murder her (thats the problem with these Audio Diaries - they are very specific and dont really talk about the whole situation they have as their context. 04:00, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :That audio diary from her is conflicting with the main plot, as she mentions Eleanor like if she was still living with her while we know she was with her mother in Persephone. Either that or the bombs she mentions was a previous incident at the Kashmir or any other fancy place in Rapture, which would then hint at a previous bank crash. Another weird point to clarify, and both found at Pauper's Drop. /: Pauolo (talk) 07:34, May 11, 2015 (UTC) :- :She probably was talking about Kashmir and the end of normal business (limbo room reopened during the Lamb regime ? seems so) Bombs going off (long) previously would have been big news history (nothing ever mentioned or alluded too in-game). Protests probably happened previous (Bathysphere lockdown from Surface) but nothing with real violence. Its really part of the evil ryan capitalist philosophy thing (Hooverville allusions etc...) -- again Audio Diary based on biased opinion being what little evidence we have to work with. : 11:11, May 11, 2015 (UTC) ::So her mention of Eleanor is a goof from the writers then. I think we went with that possibility on the wiki. Still yes, the Limbo doesn't look too much abandoned 8 years after the war (and as opposed to other businesses), so it had to be reopened at some time during Lamb's reign. Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC) I'll work on a syntax of these revisions later today and look for audio diaries and other official materials to source them. I'll appreciate if you can point to me any viable sources you know of.Pauolo (talk) 14:09, May 11, 2015 (UTC)